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Post by olukumi on Feb 20, 2016 12:42:51 GMT
olukumi , One can always find fringe articles by "dissenters" and crackpots claiming that the orthodoxy is wrong, but that is no substitute for careful reasoning based on mathematical models which are then tested using the statistical techniques of econometrics. A random FT article can never match up to careful academic research, of which I've already provided you several links, each of which would take you far more time to read through than you spent composing your replies - so I know you didn't bother to actually read them. You breezily repeat the assertion that protectionism explains the rise of the East Asian tigers, despite the fact that the actual evidence against you is overwhelming. Anyone claiming that Singapore and Hong Kong were protectionist simply doesn't have the slightest clue what they are talking about, as these are two of the most open economies in existence in the world - and they have been that way since the 1960s, when they were much poorer. Just look at the countries that top the list of open countries and tell me how many of them are poor, then repeat the exercise at the bottom and tell me how many are rich? You can claim to have taken any number of courses on economics, but if your arguments don't reflect the content of those courses, I won't believe what you have to say. Do you really understand the simple Ricardian model of free trade? Can you tell me what its assumptions are and under what conditions they work? Because if you did, you'd realize that saying protectionism is the answer makes as much sense as telling a doctor that it's the liver that pumps blood through the body, telling a biologist that the earth was created 6,000 years ago, or telling a mathematician that 2 + 2 is actually 5. Protectionism is the national equivalent of someone thinking that they will become richer by growing their own food and making their own clothes, instead of getting a job and buying their clothes and food from the market - in other words, it is economic insanity. The defect in your reasoning is pointing to examples that essentially piggyback off protectionist states. In the example of Hong kong, they had UK, former old colonial and protectionist economy, and currently have China, which developed in recent years out of protectionist policies. They can now scream free trade when they've gained comparative advantages. Hong Kong, has been a trading hub for UK for ages, with colonial wealth to booth, it's now a trading powerhouse to China and the UK. Singapore to a great extent also piggybacks off China. A boat load of manufacturing plants are owned by Singaporeans which are feverishly protected by China. Where is Nigeria’s China? You just can't immerse yourself in all these feel good theories without looking at the Nigerian situation. Why was SAP a total disaster when it was prescribed to us? Free trade and devaluation were high on its ethos. If we don't develop and actively protect our industries as I pointed examples in references, all we have to trade are raw commodities. We will never develop processing capabilities, it will always be cheaper to process them where the advantages are higher. So how would we ever gain any advantage beyond what God endowed on us? Protectionism has its own risks, if not managed right, you will kill some bilateral agreements. But there are now many countries going back to protectionism after getting burnt. Like anything economics, the theories are not mutually exclusive, hence America's dubious role as the biggest protectionist and also the biggest proponent of free trade. The hypocrites! Nigeria should selfishly adopt what will benefit it's long term growth which may encompass gradual devaluation but active protectionism. There is no pure economic theory, countries just have to work for their selfish interest.
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Post by olukumi on Feb 20, 2016 12:53:18 GMT
Read this article on modern protectionism and how everybody games the WTO so you don't appear to run against the norm of free trade mantra. All BRIC countries are experts in the game and it's no wonder their economies grew. Hidden persuaders of protectionism. www.economist.com/news/special-report/21587381-protectionism-can-take-many-forms-not-all-them-obvious-hidden-persuadersWe are so so far behind. We don't even have viable industries beyond crude oil exports! Time to use the favorable dual exchange rates to grow our other industries and let the cheap imports sort itself in the free market. My major fears are corrupt bankers and nepotism such as favoring the likes of Dangote and co. That's already a reality with guaranteed rates for his mega refinery. But if it reverses importation of gasoline to exportation, then it's still a positive for the country.
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Post by Honorebu on Feb 20, 2016 13:22:43 GMT
Professor omohayek and professor olukumi please lets take it easy before this resorts to name calling
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Post by olukumi on Feb 20, 2016 13:34:56 GMT
Man yi rora. Lolz
A spirited debate is just what it is. I won't resort to name calling and I think he'll also oblige. None of us wrote these theories and we are just dealing with topics at a very superficial level. The theories in their pure form doesn't exist.
Fact of the matter is each country is out there for its own selfish interest (naija may be an exception since individual interests trumps natonal interest). The rest na story for tortoise.
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Post by ajanaku on Feb 20, 2016 13:51:32 GMT
omohayek, olukumi, RESPECT! Thanks for the free schooling. Abeg, make una argument no finish o!
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Post by ajanaku on Feb 20, 2016 13:54:10 GMT
Aare baba, I bin dey think say I no book before o. Omo, I just dey start! You and these your GIFs sha...
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Post by Honorebu on Feb 20, 2016 14:05:10 GMT
Aare baba, I bin dey think say I no book before o. Omo, I just dey start! You and these your GIFs sha... Lol but you're in this field na so you sef na professor. You just dey hide Abeg join the conversation let we the students learn from you
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Post by olukumi on Feb 20, 2016 14:06:35 GMT
Let me give you real world experience of protectionism as practiced in the USA. As a side gig, I have gotten into global commodities trade and recently saw an opportunity importing dried catfish into the US market. But when I started going through all the tariffs and road blocks ahead. It became cheaper on the long run to source the catfish in farms here in the states and dry them myself.
Another example is the solar sector here in the USA. The government subsidies the manufacturers at a ridiculous rate to frustrate cheap Chinese imports. Same can be said for the agricultural industry. USA basically crashes the corn market everywhere that the likes of EU have banned or restricted certain agricultural produce from the USA.
Has anybody tried to export anything into China besides raw commodities? Do you know how difficult it is to export to China outside the aforementioned? Do you know how China manipulates it's currency to always game the system after it established competitive advantages in manufacturing? How many times have they been reported to World Trade Organization for unfair practices?
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Post by ajanaku on Feb 20, 2016 15:40:43 GMT
Aare baba, I bin dey think say I no book before o. Omo, I just dey start! You and these your GIFs sha... Lol but you're in this field na so you sef na professor. You just dey hide Abeg join the conversation let we the students learn from you Aare, abeg, na strict Accounting be my field. Na advanced Economics dem dey discuss for here. omohayek even carry the argument enter Econometrics. Those guys too much!
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Post by ajanaku on Feb 20, 2016 15:54:27 GMT
No be small thing o my dear Aare.... Na how I go carry this thread go show Aisha to give to bubu and insist he reads it before she pull wrapper for any action I dey ruminate on right now..... There's so much to learn from the exchanges Bubu go still dey knack so? At that age? With so much tasks to discharge as the President of Nigeria?
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Post by Omoluabi on Feb 20, 2016 16:23:02 GMT
No be small thing o my dear Aare.... Na how I go carry this thread go show Aisha to give to bubu and insist he reads it before she pull wrapper for any action I dey ruminate on right now..... There's so much to learn from the exchanges Bubu go still dey knack so? At that age? With so much tasks to discharge as the President of Nigeria? Na him sabi jare.... If Aisha fit seduce am to read our thread, I won't mind if he collapses from simply staring at his fine wife abeg.
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Post by Belmot on Feb 20, 2016 17:27:16 GMT
Professor omohayek and professor olukumi please lets take it easy before this resorts to name calling Omohayek and shymmex were on each others neck on nairaland over this economic wahala.
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Post by olukumi on Feb 20, 2016 17:51:21 GMT
Read about how free trade wrecked farming in Senegal and also stole their fishing industry. Also learn about how western countries got rich via protectionism and led the expansionist free trade agreements. Some excerpts Neoliberal economists claim rich countries got that way by removing their barriers to trade. Nothing could be further from the truth. As Ha-Joon Chang shows in his book Kicking Away the Ladder, Britain discovered its enthusiasm for free trade only after it had achieved economic dominance. The industrial revolution was built on protectionism: in 1699, for example, we banned the import of Irish woollens; in 1700 we banned cotton cloth from India. To protect our infant industries, we imposed ferocious tariffs (trade taxes) on almost all manufactured goods. By 1816 the US had imposed a 35% tax on most imported manufactures, which rose to 50% in 1832. Between 1864 and 1913 it was the most heavily protected nation on earth, and the fastest-growing. It wasn't until after the second world war, when it had already become top dog, that it dropped most of its tariffs. The same strategy was followed by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and almost every other country that is rich today. Within the ACP nations, the great success story of the past 30 years is the country whose protectionism has been fiercest: during the 1980s and 1990s, Mauritius imposed import tariffs of up to 80%. Protectionism, which can be easily exploited by corrupt elites, does not always deliver wealth; but development is much harder without it. Mandelson's attempt to deprive the poor nations of these strategies is just one of the injustices he is trying to impose. While he wants the ACP countries to eliminate tariffs on the import of almost all goods, Europe will sustain its farm subsidies. In combination, these policies could put millions out of work. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/sep/09/eu.globaleconomy
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Post by Honorebu on Feb 20, 2016 18:02:38 GMT
Professor omohayek and professor olukumi please lets take it easy before this resorts to name calling Omohayek and shymmex were on each others neck on nairaland over this economic wahala.
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Post by Belmot on Feb 20, 2016 18:07:25 GMT
We thank God them no tear cloth sha
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