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Post by Honorebu on Dec 28, 2015 23:44:38 GMT
Like you, I honestly don't understand the correlation between homeowner charter and diversifying an economy that's heavily dependent on oil or wealth creation. The whole thing looks like housing ponzi scheme of the Clinton era in America - that later became a curse when the global economy crashed. I think it's more of a scenario whereby they're trying to "attract" or "create" a middle class as the population from Lagos flows into the state. However, how would the state government generate funds and create wealth from this, especially if the houses are going to be based on mortgage - or are they selling them outrightly, with the state government diversifying into real estate? Personally, I'd wager that the state government focused on developing infrastructures in the state - under a well planned structure, to entice investors, as the population flows in. Rather than get entangled in housing, which won't be profitable on the long run. Nigeria is too broke for that right now. The wealth of the state would come from investors. I'm as confused.I'm just waiting for someone who really understands it to explain it to me.
I believe they're making money from it but how?
All I've been seeing is a lot of people lauding the initiative
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Post by Shymmex on Dec 28, 2015 23:54:03 GMT
Like you, I honestly don't understand the correlation between homeowner charter and diversifying an economy that's heavily dependent on oil or wealth creation. The whole thing looks like housing ponzi scheme of the Clinton era in America - that later became a curse when the global economy crashed. I think it's more of a scenario whereby they're trying to "attract" or "create" a middle class as the population from Lagos flows into the state. However, how would the state government generate funds and create wealth from this, especially if the houses are going to be based on mortgage - or are they selling them outrightly, with the state government diversifying into real estate? Personally, I'd wager that the state government focused on developing infrastructures in the state - under a well planned structure, to entice investors, as the population flows in. Rather than get entangled in housing, which won't be profitable on the long run. Nigeria is too broke for that right now. The wealth of the state would come from investors. I'm as confused.I'm just waiting for someone who really understands it to explain it to me.
I believe they're making money from it but how?
All I've been seeing is a lot of people lauding the initiative I believe the excerpt below shed more light on how they're generating wealth off it: So, basically, anyone who buys a house built by the state government would pay less for C of O, though making the real estate business of the government more enticing to those moving. However, only "middle class" folks would be able to afford these houses and how profitable are they for the government if they're selling them on mortgage and not outrightly? Yes, there will be more homeowners and an increase in the middle class population - but where's the proper wealth creation via infrastructures and investors?
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Post by Her Highness on Dec 28, 2015 23:55:34 GMT
they talked about home loans....I'm guessing they're also making money loan interests and/or investments.
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Post by ajanaku on Dec 29, 2015 6:13:46 GMT
Aare baba! From the interesting piece I just read, there's little information about how the Home owners charter work. The piece only disclosed the effectiveness of the discount initiated by the Amosun administration, with respect to getting C of Os. You know, the creation of employment opportunities and the easy acquisition of landed properties. E be like say you go look for person wey dey work with Ogun state Government or you search further on the internet. Aare wan buy Acres of land for Ogun state. Nice one!
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Post by Honorebu on Dec 29, 2015 6:21:42 GMT
Aare baba! From the interesting piece I just read, there's little information about how the Home owners charter work. The piece only disclosed the effectiveness of the discount initiated by the Amosun administration, with respect to getting C of Os. You know, the creation of employment opportunities and the easy acquisition of landed properties. E be like say you go look for person wey dey work with Ogun state Government or you search further on the internet. Aare wan buy Acres of land for Ogun state. Nice one! I'm still waiting for Omohayek and razid to explain to me.Those two are very familiar with Ogun state
It's one of those places I've never been really fascinated by.I don't know why
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Post by dansoye1 on Dec 31, 2015 17:18:20 GMT
Shymmex,Interloper,iyalode,Moffy,OmoOba,Iya Niyen!,Omoluabi,dansoye1,Belmot,Her Highness,IrekeOnibudo,Honorebu,omohayek,AgbongboAkala,
2015: Foreign Reserves Drop To $29.13b – CBN The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Friday said that the nation’s foreign exchange reserves declined to 29.13 billion dollars as at Dec. 29. The bank said on its Website that the drop represented 2.43 per cent from 29.31 billion dollars recorded as at Dec.23 The foreign reserves have been dropping since July 1, 2015. The nation’s external reserves stood at 34.49 billion dollars as at Jan 5, 2015 from the 34.47 billion dollars recorded in Dec. 31, 2014. But shortages of US Dollar has forced Nigeria’s external reserves into a massive decline hitting a new low of 29.73 billion dollar as at Dec. 11, while the value of the Naira declined in the unofficial foreign exchange market. The central bank had spent around five billion dollars between January and July defending the Naira, which was hit by the 2014 plunge in oil prices. The CBN in November said it was able to save 300 million dollars as at August from Bureau De Change (BDC), through its provision that request for forex must be accompanied by the BVN of the customers.
www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/2015-foreign-reserves-drop-to-29-13b-cbn/
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Post by Her Highness on Dec 31, 2015 17:39:16 GMT
Brace yourselves Nigerians, hard times are coming. No wonder GEJ sef no fight for the position.
What does this mean in the scheme of things?
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Post by omohayek on Dec 31, 2015 18:42:41 GMT
Brace yourselves Nigerians, hard times are coming. No wonder GEJ sef no fight for the position. What does this mean in the scheme of things? It means that at some point in the coming year, Buhari will either have to accept a devaluation of the Naira to bring it closer to the black market rate, or watch the foreign reserves dwindle to nothing and see the economy come to a halt. Other oil exporters like Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have already had to devalue as oil prices collapsed. The Saudis have only been able to avoid devaluing so far by spending $90 billion (of $600 billion reserves) defending the Riyal, and even with that they're slashing domestic petrol and electricity subsidies to bring their budget deficit under control. Nigeria doesn't have 5% of Saudi Arabia's reserves, yet Buhari is afraid of cancelling the expensive fuel subsidy while insisting on an artificially strong value for the Naira. Something will have to give, and my bet is on the Naira's official value.
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Post by Shymmex on Jan 1, 2016 21:33:42 GMT
Brace yourselves Nigerians, hard times are coming. No wonder GEJ sef no fight for the position. What does this mean in the scheme of things? Nigeria is about to go fully bankrupt.
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Post by Shymmex on Jan 1, 2016 21:36:16 GMT
Brace yourselves Nigerians, hard times are coming. No wonder GEJ sef no fight for the position. What does this mean in the scheme of things? It means that at some point in the coming year, Buhari will either have to accept a devaluation of the Naira to bring it closer to the black market rate, or watch the foreign reserves dwindle to nothing and see the economy come to a halt. Other oil exporters like Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have already had to devalue as oil prices collapsed. The Saudis have only been able to avoid devaluing so far by spending $90 billion (of $600 billion reserves) defending the Riyal, and even with that they're slashing domestic petrol and electricity subsidies to bring their budget deficit under control. Nigeria doesn't have 5% of Saudi Arabia's reserves, yet Buhari is afraid of cancelling the expensive fuel subsidy while insisting on an artificially strong value for the Naira. Something will have to give, and my bet is on the Naira's official value. Is naira really "strong"? And is there really any subsidy on oil in Nigeria, based on how low oil prices are today? If the Nigerian refineries were functional, there won't even be any need for subsidy. The whole shebang is just a ponzi scheme IMO.
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Post by omohayek on Jan 1, 2016 22:17:06 GMT
It means that at some point in the coming year, Buhari will either have to accept a devaluation of the Naira to bring it closer to the black market rate, or watch the foreign reserves dwindle to nothing and see the economy come to a halt. Other oil exporters like Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have already had to devalue as oil prices collapsed. The Saudis have only been able to avoid devaluing so far by spending $90 billion (of $600 billion reserves) defending the Riyal, and even with that they're slashing domestic petrol and electricity subsidies to bring their budget deficit under control. Nigeria doesn't have 5% of Saudi Arabia's reserves, yet Buhari is afraid of cancelling the expensive fuel subsidy while insisting on an artificially strong value for the Naira. Something will have to give, and my bet is on the Naira's official value. Is naira really "strong"? And is there really any subsidy on oil in Nigeria, based on how low oil prices are today? If the Nigerian refineries were functional, there won't even be any need for subsidy. The whole shebang is just a ponzi scheme IMO. When compared to what the free-market value of the Naira should be (the "black market" value), yes, the official value for the Naira is "strong". A devaluation would achieve the same effect of reducing demand for imports as the current hacks Emefiele has implemented, but without the distortionary effects that a fake "strength" has on the economy: those who really need the dollars the most would be the ones paying for it, and potential investors wouldn't be put off by fear of never being able to repatriate their profits. Meanwhile, the lucky few who have the right government connections can enjoy arbitrage-free profits by simply buying dollars at the "official" rate and selling it at the black market rate. As for the subsidy, there may not be much of a true need for it at present, but until anyone and everyone can import refined PMS without restrictions and sell it openly at any price they desire, the real power will remain with the same handful of marketers. The domestic refineries are old and uncompetitive, and as such they cannot operate without continuously losing money if they have to sell their output at pump prices; the inadequacy of funds to cover maintenance is why they're always breaking down in the first place. Besides, even if they were to all run at full capacity, they would no longer cover more than about half of Nigeria's domestic fuel consumption. Add the previous facts together and what you get is that the oil marketers will still be able to hold the country to ransom for inflated or outright phony claims in the future, even though there's no economic justification given the current low price of oil. Until the fuel subsidy is officially abolished, no investors in their right minds will build modern private refineries in Nigeria, and until the downstream sector is deregulated, only the marketers will be able to import refined PMS, so they will continue to be able to blackmail the country with artificial fuel shortages, no matter what claims Buhari might be making now.
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Post by Shymmex on Jan 1, 2016 22:30:46 GMT
Is naira really "strong"? And is there really any subsidy on oil in Nigeria, based on how low oil prices are today? If the Nigerian refineries were functional, there won't even be any need for subsidy. The whole shebang is just a ponzi scheme IMO. When compared to what the free-market value of the Naira should be (the "black market" value), yes, the official value for the Naira is "strong". A devaluation would achieve the same effect of reducing demand for imports as the current hacks Emefiele has implemented, but without the distortionary effects that a fake "strength" has on the economy: those who really need the dollars the most would be the ones paying for it, and potential investors wouldn't be put off by fear of never being able to repatriate their profits. Meanwhile, the lucky few who have the right government connections can enjoy arbitrage-free profits by simply buying dollars at the "official" rate and selling it at the black market rate. As for the subsidy, there may not be much of a true need for it at present, but until anyone and everyone can import refined PMS without restrictions and sell it openly at any price they desire, the real power will remain with the same handful of marketers. The domestic refineries are old and uncompetitive, and as such they cannot operate without continuously losing money if they have to sell their output at pump prices; the inadequacy of funds to cover maintenance is why they're always breaking down in the first place. Besides, even if they were to all run at full capacity, they would no longer cover more than about half of Nigeria's domestic fuel consumption. Add the previous facts together and what you get is that the oil marketers will still be able to hold the country to ransom for inflated or outright phony claims in the future, even though there's no economic justification given the current low price of oil. Until the fuel subsidy is officially abolished, no investors in their right minds will build modern private refineries in Nigeria, and until the downstream sector is deregulated, only the marketers will be able to import refined PMS, so they will continue to be able to blackmail the country with artificial fuel shortages, no matter what claims Buhari might be making now. Insightful post. Sir, I'll like to know ya opinion on this:
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Post by omohayek on Jan 1, 2016 23:01:24 GMT
When compared to what the free-market value of the Naira should be (the "black market" value), yes, the official value for the Naira is "strong". A devaluation would achieve the same effect of reducing demand for imports as the current hacks Emefiele has implemented, but without the distortionary effects that a fake "strength" has on the economy: those who really need the dollars the most would be the ones paying for it, and potential investors wouldn't be put off by fear of never being able to repatriate their profits. Meanwhile, the lucky few who have the right government connections can enjoy arbitrage-free profits by simply buying dollars at the "official" rate and selling it at the black market rate. As for the subsidy, there may not be much of a true need for it at present, but until anyone and everyone can import refined PMS without restrictions and sell it openly at any price they desire, the real power will remain with the same handful of marketers. The domestic refineries are old and uncompetitive, and as such they cannot operate without continuously losing money if they have to sell their output at pump prices; the inadequacy of funds to cover maintenance is why they're always breaking down in the first place. Besides, even if they were to all run at full capacity, they would no longer cover more than about half of Nigeria's domestic fuel consumption. Add the previous facts together and what you get is that the oil marketers will still be able to hold the country to ransom for inflated or outright phony claims in the future, even though there's no economic justification given the current low price of oil. Until the fuel subsidy is officially abolished, no investors in their right minds will build modern private refineries in Nigeria, and until the downstream sector is deregulated, only the marketers will be able to import refined PMS, so they will continue to be able to blackmail the country with artificial fuel shortages, no matter what claims Buhari might be making now. Insightful post. Sir, I'll like to know ya opinion on this: I think the US and the EU are doing exactly what they should be doing to protect the interests of their manufacturers. Trade is a 2-way street, and we can't expect to retain open access to Western markets when we're busy restricting access to our own. As a member of organizations like the WTO and the IMF, the Nigerian government has obligations that apparently never occurred to Emefiele or his master Buhari. The sad thing is that Emefiele's policies are damaging Nigerian businesses even more than they inflict pain on firms in other countries. There is hardly any sort of business in any country that doesn't need foreign inputs in some way (let alone Nigeria where so little is locally made), and now they're all being told they have to file cumbersome paperwork and possibly wait weeks or even months to get access to the funds they need - if they're ever allowed access at all. Just because the uses of particular imports might not be obvious to the CBN doesn't mean it makes sense to ban them outright: for example, it is impossible to run a 5-star international hotel in most places without importing many items that seem pointless luxuries to laymen (e.g. champagne, caviar, fancy toothpicks, high-end cotton bedsheets), but that same high-class hotel could easily be earning a 100% return on its spending from all the foreign patronage it is able to attract, while employing hundreds of Nigerians as staff. Then comes an Emefiele who arbitrarily decides that particular items are "unnecessary", the hotel's quality ratings plunge, many of its staff have to be let go, and fewer foreign visitors bother bringing their dollars into the country as there are no decent places for them to stay. You might think this example is fanciful, but I've avoided traveling to a few holiday destinations in the past because I couldn't find any hotels of what I considered a satisfactory standard. Well-off people don't expect to suffer on holiday. The long and short of it is that Emefiele could achieve the same result - reduced imports - without putting so much pressure on local businesses who need imported items to stay in business, or pissing off foreign trade partners. All he has to do is let the Naira find its true market value, but it's clear Buhari has told Emefiele that this is something he considers totally unacceptable. Buhari will soon be forced to learn that economic realities can't be ordered around as easily as lower-ranking soldiers.
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Post by Shymmex on Jan 2, 2016 14:04:08 GMT
Insightful post. Sir, I'll like to know ya opinion on this: I think the US and the EU are doing exactly what they should be doing to protect the interests of their manufacturers. Trade is a 2-way street, and we can't expect to retain open access to Western markets when we're busy restricting access to our own. As a member of organizations like the WTO and the IMF, the Nigerian government has obligations that apparently never occurred to Emefiele or his master Buhari. The sad thing is that Emefiele's policies are damaging Nigerian businesses even more than they inflict pain on firms in other countries. There is hardly any sort of business in any country that doesn't need foreign inputs in some way (let alone Nigeria where so little is locally made), and now they're all being told they have to file cumbersome paperwork and possibly wait weeks or even months to get access to the funds they need - if they're ever allowed access at all. Just because the uses of particular imports might not be obvious to the CBN doesn't mean it makes sense to ban them outright: for example, it is impossible to run a 5-star international hotel in most places without importing many items that seem pointless luxuries to laymen (e.g. champagne, caviar, fancy toothpicks, high-end cotton bedsheets), but that same high-class hotel could easily be earning a 100% return on its spending from all the foreign patronage it is able to attract, while employing hundreds of Nigerians as staff. Then comes an Emefiele who arbitrarily decides that particular items are "unnecessary", the hotel's quality ratings plunge, many of its staff have to be let go, and fewer foreign visitors bother bringing their dollars into the country as there are no decent places for them to stay. You might think this example is fanciful, but I've avoided traveling to a few holiday destinations in the past because I couldn't find any hotels of what I considered a satisfactory standard. Well-off people don't expect to suffer on holiday. The long and short of it is that Emefiele could achieve the same result - reduced imports - without putting so much pressure on local businesses who need imported items to stay in business, or pissing off foreign trade partners. All he has to do is let the Naira find its true market value, but it's clear Buhari has told Emefiele that this is something he considers totally unacceptable. Buhari will soon be forced to learn that economic realities can't be ordered around as easily as lower-ranking soldiers. Sir, I'll like to ask you the following questions: 1). Don't you think the trade between Nigeria and western countries is lopsided since naij doesn't manufacture anything western countries need - apart from the raw materials we supply them? So, how will the manufacturing sector in naij grow if the country allows western manufacturers open access to the naij market and allow their goods (which would be of better quality/standard) compete directly with the Nigerian-made ones by indigenous manufacturers that are still trying to find their feet, especially with the obvious competitive edge? 2). If the naira is allowed fall freely - doesn't Nigeria have the foreign reserve and gold reserve to keep it afloat at a responsible standard? Else, with the way the foreign reserves have been depleted and how bankrupt Nigeria is - we might be looking at something similar to the Zimbabwean hyper-inflation albeit not as grave as that. Perhaps the old Ghanaian cedis would be more applicable.
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Post by omohayek on Jan 2, 2016 18:51:48 GMT
I think the US and the EU are doing exactly what they should be doing to protect the interests of their manufacturers. Trade is a 2-way street, and we can't expect to retain open access to Western markets when we're busy restricting access to our own. As a member of organizations like the WTO and the IMF, the Nigerian government has obligations that apparently never occurred to Emefiele or his master Buhari. The sad thing is that Emefiele's policies are damaging Nigerian businesses even more than they inflict pain on firms in other countries. There is hardly any sort of business in any country that doesn't need foreign inputs in some way (let alone Nigeria where so little is locally made), and now they're all being told they have to file cumbersome paperwork and possibly wait weeks or even months to get access to the funds they need - if they're ever allowed access at all. Just because the uses of particular imports might not be obvious to the CBN doesn't mean it makes sense to ban them outright: for example, it is impossible to run a 5-star international hotel in most places without importing many items that seem pointless luxuries to laymen (e.g. champagne, caviar, fancy toothpicks, high-end cotton bedsheets), but that same high-class hotel could easily be earning a 100% return on its spending from all the foreign patronage it is able to attract, while employing hundreds of Nigerians as staff. Then comes an Emefiele who arbitrarily decides that particular items are "unnecessary", the hotel's quality ratings plunge, many of its staff have to be let go, and fewer foreign visitors bother bringing their dollars into the country as there are no decent places for them to stay. You might think this example is fanciful, but I've avoided traveling to a few holiday destinations in the past because I couldn't find any hotels of what I considered a satisfactory standard. Well-off people don't expect to suffer on holiday. The long and short of it is that Emefiele could achieve the same result - reduced imports - without putting so much pressure on local businesses who need imported items to stay in business, or pissing off foreign trade partners. All he has to do is let the Naira find its true market value, but it's clear Buhari has told Emefiele that this is something he considers totally unacceptable. Buhari will soon be forced to learn that economic realities can't be ordered around as easily as lower-ranking soldiers. Sir, I'll like to ask you the following questions: 1). Don't you think the trade between Nigeria and western countries is lopsided since naij doesn't manufacture anything western countries need - apart from the raw materials we supply them? So, how will the manufacturing sector in naij grow if the country allows western manufacturers open access to the naij market and allow their goods (which would be of better quality/standard) compete directly with the Nigerian-made ones by indigenous manufacturers that are still trying to find their feet, especially with the obvious competitive edge? 2). If the naira is allowed fall freely - doesn't Nigeria have the foreign reserve and gold reserve to keep it afloat at a responsible standard? Else, with the way the foreign reserves have been depleted and how bankrupt Nigeria is - we might be looking at something similar to the Zimbabwean hyper-inflation albeit not as grave as that. Perhaps the old Ghanaian cedis would be more applicable. 1. It's not the West's fault that we don't manufacture anything, and protectionism isn't the answer to that issue in any case. Putting up trade barriers is a surefire way to foster inefficient "infant industries" that are never able to compete on the world market. In addition, such behavior provokes retaliation that could potentially be lethal to any efforts to bring export-oriented investment to Nigeria: Chinese manufacturers won't be interested in coming if they can't sell the products to the rich world, and you can forget about any possibility of turning the SW into a hub for IT outsourcing. Putting up trade barriers is sacrificing the future on the alter of immediate concerns, which is what Nigeria has always done, yet we wonder why we remain a one-product economy. 2. You have it backwards: it is the refusal to allow the Naira to float which is depleting Nigeria's foreign reserves. The whole point of allowing the currency to float is that the CBN should stop squandering reserves by giving a few favored businesses subsidized dollars. Additionally, if the Naira were set to fall in the manner you indicate, wouldn't it already have plunged like that in the black market, instead of sitting at about 265 to the dollar for months? 3. Zimbabwe or even Ghana-style hyper-inflation will only be possible if the FG insists on running huge deficits it can't pay for, and the CBN is forced to print excess Nairas to accommodate: the feed-through effect of devaluation would be much less than that, and conversely, huge oil surpluses haven't prevented the Naira from falling against the dollar in the past. The primary determinant of the Naira's historical decline has been a lack of domestic budgetary discipline by successive governments: when you budget for more than you earn, and aren't able to borrow enough to meet the shortfall, either you cut your spending or print more notes, leading to inflation. Guess which alternative Nigerian governments have always preferred? Ironically, Buhari's unrealistic budget makes runaway inflation much more likely, even if Emefiele somehow manages to keep pretending that the Naira is stronger than it is.
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